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Forecasting ground effects of severe meteorological eventswith an adequate lead timeis fundamental for civil protection scopes and is therefore an important challenge forthe scientific community.The paper focuses on the performance of some steps of a meteo-hydrological forecasting chain that can beapplied in small watersheds to assess hydrological risk deriving by anintense storm predicted at the large meteorological scale.The proposed procedure integrates large-scale rainfall fields, as those produced bynumerical weather prediction (NWP) models, with statistical rainfall downscalingand hydrological modelling.More in details, assuming a large scale rain rate as the input of the process,the forecasting chain produces an ensemble of hydrographsthat are post-processed in order to give a probabilistic representationof mean streamflow maxima for different time windows.The outcome of this procedure can be thus applied to assess the risk that somecritical streamflow thresholds may be exceeded.The procedure has been tested on more than one thousand recorded events in the Araxisicatchment in Sardinia, Italy. Results and performances are presentedand discussed

A meteo-hydrological forecasting chain: performance of the downscaling and rainfall-runoff steps in a small catchment