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Many model applications suffer from the fact that although it is well knownthat model application implies different sources of uncertainty there is noobjective criterion to decide whether a model is suitable for a particularapplication or not. This paper introduces a comparative index between theuncertainty of a model and the change effects of scenario calculations whichenables the modeller to objectively decide about suitability of a model tobe applied in scenario analysis studies. The index is called"signal-to-noise-ratio", and it is applied for an exemplary scenario study which was performedwithin the GLOWA-IMPETUS project in Benin. The conceptual UHP model wasapplied on the upper Ou\ue9m\ue9 basin. Although model calibration andvalidation were successful, uncertainties on model parameters and input datacould be identified. Applying the "signal-to-noise-ratio" on regional scale subcatchments ofthe upper Ou\ue9m\ue9 comparing water availability indicators foruncertainty studies and scenario analyses the UHP model turned out to besuitable to predict long-term water balances under the present poor dataavailability and changing environmental conditions in subhumid West Africa

Evaluation of hydrological models for scenario analyses: signal-to-noise-ratio between scenario effects and model uncertainty