English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon isthe main source of the predictability skill in many regions of the world forseasonal and interannual timescales. Longer lead predictability experimentsof Niño3.4 Index using simple statistical linear models have shown animportant skill loss at longer lead times when the targeted season is summeror autumn. We develop different versions of the model substituting some itsvariables with others that contain tropical or extratropical information,produce a number of hindcasts with these models using two differentpredictions schemes and cross validate them. We have identified differentsets of tropical or extratropical predictors, which can provide usefulvalues of potential skill. We try to find out the sources of thepredictability by comparing the sea surface temperature (SST) and heatcontent (HC) anomalous fields produced by the successful predictors for the1980–2012 period. We observe that where tropical predictors are used theprediction reproduces only the equatorial characteristics of the warming(cooling). However, where extratropical predictors are included, thepredictions are able to simulate the absorbed warming in the South PacificConvergence Zone (SPCZ)

Tropical and Extratropical predictions of the summer and autumn Niño3.4 Index: a comparison