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The midsummer drought (MSD) in Central America is characterised in order tocreate annual indexes representing the timing of its phases (start, minimumand end), and other features relevant for MSD forecasting such as theintensity and the magnitude. The MSD intensity is defined as the minimumrainfall detected during the MSD, meanwhile the magnitude is the totalprecipitation divided by the total days between the start and end of the MSD.It is shown that the MSD extends along the Pacific coast, however, a similarMSD structure was detected also in two stations in the Caribbean side ofCentral America, located in Nicaragua. The MSD intensity and magnitude show anegative relationship with Niño 3.4 and a positiverelationship with the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) index, however for theCaribbean stations the results were not statistically significant, which isindicating that other processes might be modulating the precipitation duringthe MSD over the Caribbean coast. On the other hand, the temporal variables(start, minimum and end) show low and no significant correlations with thesame indexes.  The results from canonical correlation analysis (CCA) show good performanceto study the MSD intensity and magnitude, however, for the temporal indexesthe performance is not satisfactory due to the low skill to predict the MSDphases. Moreover, we find that CCA shows potentialpredictability of the MSD intensity andmagnitude using sea surface temperatures (SST) with leading times of up to 3months. Using CCA as diagnostic tool it is found that during June, an SSTdipole pattern upon the neighbouring waters to Central America is the mainvariability mode controlling the inter-annual variability of the MSDfeatures. However, there is also evidence that the regional waters areplaying an important role in the annual modulation of the MSD features. Thewaters in the PDO vicinity might be also controlling the rainfall during theMSD, however, exerting an opposite effect at the north and south regions ofCentral America

Interannual variability of the midsummer drought in Central America and the connection with sea surface temperatures