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Operational flood forecasting systems share a fundamental challenge:forecast uncertainty which needs to be considered when making a floodwarning decision. One way of representing this uncertainty is throughemploying an ensemble approach. This paper presents research funded by theEnvironment Agency in which ensemble rainfall forecasts are utilised andtested for operational use. The form of ensemble rainfall forecast used isthe Met Office short-range product called MOGREPS. It is tested foroperational use within the Environment Agency's National Flood ForecastingSystem (NFFS) for England and Wales. Currently, the NFFS uses deterministicforecasts only. The operational configuration of the NFFS for Thames Regionis extended to trial the use of the new ensemble rainfall forecasts insupport of probabilistic flood forecasting. Evaluation includes consideringissues of model performance, configuration (how to fit the ensembleforecasts within the current configurations), data volumes, run times andoptions for displaying probabilistic forecasts. Although ensemble rainfallforecasts available from MOGREPS are not extensive enough to fully verifyproduct performance, it is concluded that their use within currentEnvironment Agency regional flood forecasting systems can provide betterinformation to the forecaster than use of the deterministic forecasts alone.Of note are the small number of false alarms of river flow exceedancegenerated when using MOGREPS as input and that small flow events are alsoforecasted rather well, notwithstanding the rather coarse resolution of theMOGREPS grid (24 km) compared to the studied catchments. In addition, it isconcluded that, with careful configuration in NFFS, MOGREPS can be used inexisting systems without a significant increase in system load

The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall forecasts in operational flood forecasting systems across England and Wales