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Within the GLOWA Jordan River project, a first-time overview of the currentand possible future land and water conditions of a major part of the EasternMediterranean region (ca. 100 000 km<sup>2</sup>) is given. First, we applied thehydrological model TRAIN to simulate current water availability (runoff andgroundwater recharge) and irrigation water demand on a 1 km×1 km spatialresolution. The results demonstrate the scarcity of water resources in thestudy region, with extremely low values of water availability in thesemi-arid and arid parts. Then, a set of four divergent scenarios on thefuture of water has been developed using a stakeholder driven approach.Relevant drivers for land-use/land-cover change were fed into theLandSHIFT.R model to produce land-use and land-cover maps for the differentscenarios. These maps were used as input to TRAIN in order to generatescenarios of water availability and irrigation water demand for the region.For this study, two intermediate scenarios were selected, with projecteddevelopments ranging between optimistic and pessimistic futures (with regardto social and economic conditions in the region). Given that climateconditions remain unchanged, the simulations show both increases anddecreases in water availability, depending on the future pattern of naturaland agricultural vegetation and the related dominance of hydrologicalprocesses

Modelling the effects of land-use and land-cover change on water availability in the Jordan River region