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Between the 11 and 13 October 2005 several flash floods were producedalong the coast of Catalonia (NE Spain) due to a significant heavy rainfallevent. Maximum rainfall achieved values up to 250 mm in 24 h. The totalamount recorded during the event in some places was close to 350 mm.Barcelona city was also in the affected area where high rainfall intensitieswere registered, but just a few small floods occurred, thanks to theefficient urban drainage system of the city. Two forecasting methods havebeen applied in order to evaluate their capability of prediction regardingextreme events: the deterministic MM5 model and a probabilistic model basedon the analogous method. The MM5 simulation allows analysing accurately themain meteorological features with a high spatial resolution (2 km), like theformation of some convergence lines over the region that partially explainsthe maximum precipitation location during the event. On the other hand, theanalogous technique shows a good agreement among highest probability valuesand real affected areas, although a larger pluviometric rainfall databasewould be needed to improve the results. The comparison between the observedprecipitation and from both QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast)methods shows that the analogous technique tends to underestimate therainfall values and the MM5 simulation tends to overestimate them

Heavy rain prediction using deterministic and probabilistic models – the flash flood cases of 11–13 October 2005 in Catalonia (NE Spain)