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The factors that control the influence of deep convective detrainmenton water vapor in the tropical upper troposphere are examined usingobservations from multiple satellites in conjunction with a trajectorymodel. Deep convection is confirmed to act primarily as a moisturesource to the upper troposphere, modulated by the ambient relativehumidity (RH). Convective detrainment provides strong moistening atlow RH and offsets drying due to subsidence across a wide range ofRH. Strong day-to-day moistening and drying takes place mostfrequently in relatively dry transition zones, where between 0.01%and 0.1% of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radarobservations indicate active convection. Many of these strongmoistening events in the tropics can be directly attributed todetrainment from recent tropical convection, while others in thesubtropics appear to be related to stratosphere-troposphereexchange. The temporal and spatial limits of the convective source areestimated to be about 36–48 h and 600–1500 km, respectively,consistent with the lifetimes of detrainment cirrus clouds. Largeramounts of detrained ice are associated with enhanced uppertropospheric moistening in both absolute and relative terms. Inparticular, an increase in ice water content of approximately 400%corresponds to a 10–90% increase in the likelihood of moistening anda 30–50% increase in the magnitude of moistening

A statistical analysis of the influence of deep convection on water vapor variability in the tropical upper troposphere