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The vertical profile of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes hastraditionally represented an important diagnostic for the attribution of thecooling effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO2 increases.However, CO2-induced cooling alters ozone abundance by perturbing ozonechemistry, thereby coupling the stratospheric ozone and temperature responses tochanges in CO2 and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Here we untanglethe ozone-temperature coupling and show that the attribution of global-meanstratospheric temperature changes to CO2 and ODS changes (which are thetrue anthropogenic forcing agents) can be quite different from thetraditional attribution to CO2 and ozone changes. The significance ofthese effects is quantified empirically using simulations from athree-dimensional chemistry-climate model. The results confirm the essentialvalidity of the traditional approach in attributing changes during the pastperiod of rapid ODS increases, although we find that about 10% of theupper stratospheric ozone decrease from ODS increases over the period1975–1995 was offset by the increase in CO2, and the CO2-inducedcooling in the upper stratosphere has been somewhat overestimated. Whenconsidering ozone recovery, however, the ozone-temperature coupling is afirst-order effect; fully 2/5 of the upper stratospheric ozone increaseprojected to occur from 2010–2040 is attributable to CO2 increases.Thus, it has now become necessary to base attribution of global-meanstratospheric temperature changes on CO2 and ODS changes rather than onCO2 and ozone changes

On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases