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The global impact of shipping on atmospheric chemistry and radiativeforcing, as well as the associated uncertainties, have been quantified usingan ensemble of ten state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models and apre-defined set of emission data. The analysis is performed for present-dayconditions (year 2000) and for two future ship emission scenarios. In onescenario ship emissions stabilize at 2000 levels; in the other shipemissions increase with a constant annual growth rate of 2.2% up to 2030(termed the "Constant Growth Scenario" (CGS)). Most other anthropogenicemissions follow the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES(Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 scenario, while biomass burningand natural emissions remain at year 2000 levels. An intercomparison of themodel results with observations over the Northern Hemisphere (25°–60° N)oceanic regions in the lower troposphere showed that the models arecapable to reproduce ozone (O3) and nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2)reasonably well, whereas sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the marineboundary layer is significantly underestimated. The most pronounced changesin annual mean tropospheric NO2 and sulphate columns are simulated overthe Baltic and North Seas. Other significant changes occur over the NorthAtlantic, the Gulf of Mexico and along the main shipping lane from Europe toAsia, across the Red and Arabian Seas. Maximum contributions from shippingto annual mean near-surface O3 are found over the North Atlantic (5–6 ppbv in 2000; up to 8 ppbv in 2030). Ship contributions to troposphericO3 columns over the North Atlantic and Indian Oceans reach 1 DU in 2000and up to 1.8 DU in 2030. Tropospheric O3 forcings due to shipping are9.8±2.0 mW/m2 in 2000 and 13.6±2.3 mW/m2 in 2030.Whilst increasing O3, ship NOx simultaneously enhances hydroxylradicals over the remote ocean, reducing the global methane lifetime by 0.13 yr in 2000, and by up to 0.17 yr in 2030, introducing anegative radiative forcing. The models show future increases in NOx andO3 burden which scale almost linearly with increases in NOxemission totals. Increasing emissions from shipping wouldsignificantly counteract the benefits derived from reducing SO2emissions from all other anthropogenic sources under the A2 scenario overthe continents, for example in Europe. Globally, shipping contributes 3%to increases in O3 burden between 2000 and 2030, and 4.5% toincreases in sulphate under A2/CGS. However, if future ground basedemissions follow a more stringent scenario, the relative importance of shipemissions will increase. Inter-model differences in the simulated O3contributions from ships are significantly smaller than estimateduncertainties stemming from the ship emission inventory, mainly the shipemission totals, the distribution of the emissions over the globe, and theneglect of ship plume dispersion

Multi-model simulations of the impact of international shipping on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate in 2000 and 2030