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. We use a global inverse model, satellite data and flaskmeasurements to estimate methane (CH4) emissions from South America,Brazil and the basin of the Amazon River for the period 2010–2018. Wefind that emissions from Brazil have risen during this period, most quicklyin the eastern Amazon basin, and that this is concurrent with increasingsurface temperatures in this region. Brazilian CH4 emissions rose from49.8 ± 5.4 Tg yr−1 in 2010–2013 to 55.6 ± 5.2 Tg yr−1 in 2014–2017, with the wet season of December–March havingthe largest positive trend in emissions. Amazon basin emissions grew from41.7 ± 5.3 to 49.3 ± 5.1 Tg yr−1 during thesame period. We derive no significant trend in regional emissions fromfossil fuels during this period. We find that our posterior distribution ofemissions within South America is significantly and consistently changedfrom our prior estimates, with the strongest emission sources being in thefar north of the continent and to the south and south-east of the Amazonbasin, at the mouth of the Amazon River and nearby marsh, swamp and mangroveregions. We derive particularly large emissions during the wet season of2013/14, when flooding was prevalent over larger regions than normal withinthe Amazon basin. We compare our posterior CH4 mole fractions, derivedfrom posterior fluxes, to independent observations of CH4 mole fractiontaken at five lower- to mid-tropospheric vertical profiling sites over theAmazon and find that our posterior fluxes outperform prior fluxes at alllocations. In particular the large emissions from the eastern Amazon basinare shown to be in good agreement with independent observations made atSantarém, a location which has long displayed higher mole fractions ofatmospheric CH4 in contrast with other basin locations. We show that abottom-up wetland flux model can match neither the variation in annualfluxes nor the positive trend in emissions produced by the inversion. Ourresults show that the Amazon alone was responsible for 24 ± 18 % ofthe total global increase in CH4 flux during the study period, and itmay contribute further in future due to its sensitivity to temperaturechanges.

Large and increasing methane emissions from eastern Amazonia derived from satellite data, 2010–2018