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. A recent study has presented compelling new evidence suggesting thatthe observed Eurasian warming in the winter following the 1992Pinatubo eruption was, in all likelihood, unrelated to the presence ofvolcanic aerosols in the stratosphere. Building on that study, weturn our attention to the only other low-latitude eruption in theinstrumental period with a comparably large magnitude: the Krakataueruption of August 1883. We study the temperature anomaliesin the first winter following that eruption in detail, analyzing (1)observations, (2) reanalyses, and (3) models. Three findings emergefrom our analysis. First, the observed post-Krakatau winter warmingover Eurasia was unremarkable (only between 1σ and 2σ of the distribution from 1850 to present). Second, reanalyses based onassimilating surface pressure alone indicate the existence of verylarge uncertainties, so much so that a Eurasian cooling is notincompatible with those reanalyses. Third, models robustly show thecomplete absence of a volcanically forced Eurasian winter warming: here, we analyze both a 100-member initial-condition ensemble and 140simulations from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.This wealth of evidence strongly suggests that, as in the case ofPinatubo, the observed warming over Eurasia in the winter of 1883–84was, in all likelihood, unrelated to the Krakatau eruption. This,taken together with a similar result for Pinatubo, leads us toconclude that if volcanically forced Eurasian winter warming exists atall, an eruption with a magnitude far exceeding these two events wouldbe needed to produce a detectable surface warming.

Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883