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. Surface ozone (O3) is an important air pollutant andgreenhouse gas. Land use and land cover is one of the critical factorsinfluencing ozone, in addition to anthropogenic emissions and climate. Landuse and land cover change (LULCC) can on the one hand affect ozone“biogeochemically”, i.e., via dry deposition and biogenic emissions ofvolatile organic compounds (VOCs). LULCC can on the other hand alterregional- to large-scale climate through modifying albedo andevapotranspiration, which can lead to changes in surface temperature,hydrometeorology, and atmospheric circulation that can ultimately impactozone “biogeophysically”. Such biogeophysicaleffects of LULCC on ozone are largely understudied. This study investigatesthe individual and combined biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects ofLULCC on ozone and explicitly examines the critical pathway for how LULCCimpacts ozone pollution. A global coupled atmosphere–chemistry–land model isdriven by projected LULCC from the present day (2000) to the future (2050) underRCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, focusing on the boreal summer. Results revealthat when considering biogeochemical effects only, surface ozone ispredicted to have slight changes by up to 2 ppbv maximum in some areas dueto LULCC. It is primarily driven by changes in isoprene emission and drydeposition counteracting each other in shaping ozone. In contrast, whenconsidering the combined effect of LULCC, ozone is more substantiallyaltered by up to 5 ppbv over several regions in North America and Europeunder RCP4.5, reflecting the importance of biogeophysical effects on ozonechanges. In boreal and temperate mixed forests with intensive reforestation,enhanced net radiation and sensible heat induce a cascade ofhydrometeorological feedbacks that generate warmer and drier conditionsfavorable for higher ozone levels. In contrast, reforestation in subtropicalbroadleaf forests has minimal impacts on boundary-layer meteorology andozone air quality. Furthermore, significant ozone changes are also found inregions with only modest LULCC, which can only be explained by “remote”biogeophysical effects. A likely mechanism is that reforestation induces acirculation response, leading to reduced moisture transport and ultimatelywarmer and drier conditions in the surrounding regions with limited LULCC.We conclude that the biogeophysical effects of LULCC are important pathwaysthrough which LULCC influences ozone air quality both locally and in remoteregions even without significant LULCC. Overlooking the effects ofhydrometeorological changes on ozone air quality may cause underestimationof the impacts of LULCC on ozone pollution.

atmospheric chemistry and physics

Impacts of future land use and land cover change on mid-21st-century surface ozone air quality: distinguishing between the biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects