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. Shipping is an important source of air pollutants, fromthe global to the local scale. Ships emit substantial amounts ofsulfur dioxides, nitrogen dioxides, and particulate matter in the vicinityof coasts, threatening the health of the coastal population, especially inharbour cities. Reductions in emissions due to shipping have been targetedby several regulations. Nevertheless, effects of these regulations come intoforce with temporal delays, global ship traffic is expected to grow in thefuture, and other land-based anthropogenic emissions might decrease. Thus,it is necessary to investigate combined impacts to identify the impact ofshipping activities on air quality, population exposure, and health effectsin the future. We investigated the future effect of shipping emissions on air quality andrelated health effects considering different scenarios of the development ofshipping under current regional trends of economic growth and alreadydecided regulations in the Gothenburg urban area in 2040. Additionally, weinvestigated the impact of a large-scale implementation of shore electricityin the Port of Gothenburg. For this purpose, we established a one-way nestedchemistry transport modelling (CTM) system from the global to the urbanscale, to calculate pollutant concentrations, population-weightedconcentrations, and health effects related to NO2, PM2.5, and O3. The simulated concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 in future scenariosfor the year 2040 are in general very low with up to 4 ppb for NO2 andup to 3.5 µg m−3 PM2.5 in the urban areas whichare not close to the port area. From 2012 the simulated overall exposure toPM2.5 decreased by approximately 30 % in simulated future scenarios;for NO2 the decrease was over 60 %. The simulated concentrations ofO3 increased from the year 2012 to 2040 by about 20 %. In general, thecontributions of local shipping emissions in 2040 focus on the harbour areabut to some extent also influence the rest of the city domain. The simulatedimpact of onshore electricity implementation for shipping in 2040 showsreductions for NO2 in the port of up to 30 %, while increasingO3 of up to 3 %. Implementation of onshore electricity for ships atberth leads to additional local reduction potentials of up to 3 % forPM2.5 and 12 % for SO2 in the port area. All future scenariosshow substantial decreases in population-weighted exposure and health-effectimpacts.

The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040