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. The climate impact of air traffic is to a large degreecaused by changes in cirrus cloudiness resulting from the formation ofcontrails. Contrail cirrus radiative forcing is expected to increasesignificantly over time due to the large projected increases in air traffic.We use ECHAM5-CCMod, an atmospheric climate model with an online contrailcirrus parameterization including a microphysical two-moment scheme, toinvestigate the climate impact of contrail cirrus for the year 2050. We takeinto account the predicted increase in air traffic volume, changes inpropulsion efficiency and emissions, in particular soot emissions, and themodification of the contrail cirrus climate impact due to anthropogenicclimate change. Global contrail cirrus radiative forcing increases by a factor of 3 from2006 to 2050, reaching 160 or even 180 mW m −2 , which is the result of the increase in air traffic volume and a slight shift in air traffic towards higher altitudes. Large increases in contrail cirrus radiative forcing areexpected over all of the main air traffic areas, but relative increases arelargest over main air traffic areas over eastern Asia. The projected upwardshift in air traffic attenuates contrail cirrus radiative forcing increasesin the midlatitudes but reinforces it in the tropical areas. Climate changehas an insignificant impact on global contrail cirrus radiative forcing,while regional changes are significant. Of the emission reductions it is thesoot number emission reductions by 50 % that lead to a significantdecrease in contrail cirrus optical depth and coverage, leading to adecrease in radiative forcing by approximately 15 %. The strong increasein contrail cirrus radiative forcing due to the projected increase in airtraffic volume cannot be compensated for by the decrease in initial icecrystal numbers due to reduced soot emissions and improvements inpropulsion efficiency.

Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic