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. Evidence of an underlying trend in the dependence of erythema effective ultraviolet(UV) radiant exposure ( Her ) on changes in the total ozone, cloud cover andaerosol optical depth (AOD) has been studied using solar ultravioletradiation measurements collected over a 25-year period (1991–2015) at Chiltonin the south of England in the UK. The monthly mean datasets of these measures corrected for underlyingseasonal variation were analysed. When a single linear trend was fitted overthe whole study period between 1991 and 2015, the analyses revealed that thelong-term variability of Her can be best characterised in twosub-periods (1991–2004 and 2004–2015), where the estimated linear trend wasupward in the first period (1991–2004) but downward in the second period(2004–2015). Both cloud cover (CC) and total ozone (TO) were found to have a highlystatistically significant influence on Her , but the influence of theAOD measure was very small. The radiation amplification factor (RAF) for theerythema action spectrum due to TO was −1.03 at constant levels of CC overthe whole study period; that is, for a 1.0 % increase in TO, Her decreases by 1.03 %. Over the first period (1991–2004), the RAF related toCC was slightly higher at 0.97 compared to that for TO at 0.79. Theproportion of the change in Her explained by the change in CC (47 %)was much greater than the proportion explained by changes in TO (8 %). Forthe second period (2004–2015), the pattern reversed, with the observed RAFrelated to TO being −1.25 , almost double that of CC ( −0.65 ). Furthermore, inthis period the proportion of variation in Her explained by TOvariation was 33 %, double that of CC at 16 %, while AOD changes had anegligible effect (1 %). When the data were examined separately for each season, for the first period(1991–2004) the greatest effect of TO and CC on Her (i.e. the largestRAF value) was found during spring. Spring was also the season during which TO andCC variation explained the greatest proportion of variability in Her (82 %). In the later period (2004–2015), the RAF and greatestinfluence of TO and CC were observed in winter (67 %) and the AOD effectexplained a further 5 % variability in Her . This study provides evidence that both the increasing trend in Her for1991–2004 and the decreasing trend in Her for 2004–2015 occur inresponse to variation in TO, which exhibits a small increasing tendency overthese periods. CC plays a more important role in the increasing trend in Her for 1991–2004 than TO, whereas for 2004–2015, the decreasing trendin Her is less associated with changes in CC and AOD.

Relationship between erythema effective UV radiant exposure, total ozone, cloud cover and aerosols in southern England, UK