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. We examine the potential benefits of very high resolution for air-qualityforecast simulations using a nested system of the Global EnvironmentalMultiscale – Modelling Air-quality and Chemistry chemical transport model.We focus on simulations at 1 and 2.5 km grid-cell spacing for the same timeperiod and domain (the industrial emissions region of the Athabasca oil sands). Standard grid cell to observation station pair analyses show nobenefit to the higher-resolution simulation (and a degradation ofperformance for most metrics using this standard form of evaluation).However, when the evaluation methodology is modified, to include a searchover equivalent representative regions surrounding the observation locationsfor the closest fit to the observations, the model simulation with thesmaller grid-cell size had the better performance. While other sources ofmodel error thus dominate net performance at these two resolutions,obscuring the potential benefits of higher-resolution modelling forforecasting purposes, the higher-resolution simulation shows promise interms of better aiding localized chemical analysis of pollutant plumes,through better representation of plume maxima.

An evaluation of the efficacy of very high resolution air-quality modelling over the Athabasca oil sands region, Alberta, Canada