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. Large changes in tropical circulation from the mid-to-late 1990s to thepresent, in particular changes related to the summer monsoon and cooling ofthe sea surface in the equatorial eastern Pacific, are noted. The cause ofsuch recent decadal variations in the tropics was studied using ameteorological reanalysis dataset. Cooling of the equatorial southeasternPacific Ocean occurred in association with enhanced cross-equatorialsoutherlies that were associated with a strengthening of the deep ascending branchof the boreal summer Hadley circulation over the continental sector connectedto stratospheric circulation. From boreal summer to winter, the anomalousconvective activity center moves southward following the seasonal march tothe equatorial Indian Ocean–Maritime Continent region, which strengthens thesurface easterlies over the equatorial central Pacific. Accordingly, oceansurface cooling extends over the equatorial central Pacific. We suggest thatthe fundamental cause of the recent decadal change in the tropicaltroposphere and the ocean is a poleward shift of convective activity thatresulted from a strengthening of extreme deep convection penetrating into thetropical tropopause layer, particularly over the African and Asian continentsand adjacent oceans. We conjecture that the increase in extreme deepconvection is produced by a combination of land surface warming due toincreased CO2 and a reduction of static stability in the tropicaltropopause layer due to tropical stratospheric cooling.

Implication of tropical lower stratospheric cooling in recent trends in tropical circulation and deep convective activity