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. This study addresses the role of the atmospheric moisture budget in determiningthe onset and development of summer droughts over the North American GreatPlains (GP) using two state-of-the-art reanalysis datasets. We identifiedzonal moisture advection as the main cause of severe tropospheric dryingduring the extreme droughts in the southern GP in 2011 and northern GP in 2012. Forboth events, the eastward advection of anomalously dry and warm air in thefree troposphere in spring set the stage for summer drought. This led to asharp drop in relative humidity above the boundary layer, enhancing dryentrainment and suppressing deep convection. Further breakdown of the zonaladvection into dynamic (caused by circulation anomalies) and thermodynamic(caused by moisture anomalies) contributions reveals dominance ofthermodynamic advection in the tropospheric drying observed during the onsetof both 2011 and 2012 droughts. The dependence of thermodynamic advection onthe moisture gradient links springtime precipitation in the Rockies andsouthwestern US, the source region of the anomalous dry advection, to the GPsummer precipitation (with correlations u003e 0.4 using gauge-baseddata). Identifying this previously overlooked precursor of the GP summerdroughts improves our predictive understanding of drought onset mechanismsover the region.

The role of spring dry zonal advection in summer drought onset over the US Great Plains