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. The local weather and climate of the Himalayas are sensitive and interlinked withglobal-scale changes in climate, as the hydrology of this region is mainlygoverned by snow and glaciers. There are clear and strong indicators ofclimate change reported for the Himalayas, particularly the Jammu and Kashmirregion situated in the western Himalayas. In this study, using observationaldata, detailed characteristics of long- and short-term as well as localizedvariations in temperature and precipitation are analyzed for these sixmeteorological stations, namely, Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kokarnag, Qazigund,Kupwara and Srinagar during 1980–2016. All of these stations are located in Jammu and Kashmir,India. Inaddition to analysis of stations observations, we also utilized the dynamicaldownscaled simulations of WRF model and ERA-Interim (ERA-I) data for thestudy period. The annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changeswere analyzed by carrying out Mann–Kendall, linearregression, cumulative deviation and Student's t statistical tests. The results show anincrease of 0.8 ∘C in average annual temperature over 37 years (from 1980 to 2016) with higher increase in maximum temperature(0.97 ∘C) compared to minimum temperature (0.76 ∘C).Analyses of annual mean temperature at all the stations reveal that thehigh-altitude stations of Pahalgam (1.13 ∘C) and Gulmarg(1.04 ∘C) exhibit a steep increase and statistically significanttrends. The overall precipitation and temperature patterns in the valley showsignificant decreases and increases in the annual rainfall and temperaturerespectively. Seasonal analyses show significant increasing trends in thewinter and spring temperatures at all stations, with prominent decreases inspring precipitation. In the present study, the observed long-term trends intemperature (∘Cyear-1)and precipitation (mm year−1) along with theirrespective standard errors during 1980–2016 are as follows: (i) 0.05 (0.01)and −16.7 (6.3) for Gulmarg, (ii) 0.04 (0.01) and −6.6 (2.9) for Srinagar, (iii) 0.04 (0.01)and −0.69 (4.79) for Kokarnag, (iv) 0.04 (0.01) and −0.13 (3.95)for Pahalgam, (v) 0.034 (0.01) and −5.5 (3.6) for Kupwara, and (vi) 0.01 (0.01)and −7.96 (4.5) for Qazigund. The present study also reveals that variationin temperature and precipitation during winter (December–March) has a closeassociation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Further, the observedtemperature data (monthly averaged data for 1980–2016) at all the stationsshow a good correlation of 0.86 with the results of WRF and therefore the modeldownscaled simulations are considered a valid scientific tool for thestudies of climate change in this region. Though the correlation between WRFmodel and observed precipitation is significantly strong, the WRF modelsignificantly underestimates the rainfall amount, which necessitates the needfor the sensitivity study of the model using the various microphysicalparameterization schemes. The potential vorticities in the uppertroposphere are obtained from ERA-I over the Jammu and Kashmir region andindicate that the extreme weather event of September 2014 occurred due tobreaking of intense atmospheric Rossby wave activity over Kashmir. As thewave could transport a large amount of water vapor from both the Bay ofBengal and Arabian Sea and dump them over the Kashmir region through wavebreaking, it probably resulted in the historical devastating flooding ofthe whole Kashmir valley in the first week of September 2014. This wasaccompanied by extreme rainfall events measuring more than 620 mm in someparts of the Pir Panjal range in the south Kashmir.

atmospheric chemistry and physics

Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events