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. The weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in Beijing and itsvicinity (BIV) in wintertime have worsened in recent years, particularlyafter 2010. The relation between interdecadal changes in weather conditionsand climate warming is uncertain. Here, we analyze long-term variations of anintegrated pollution-linked meteorological index (which is approximately andlinearly related to aerosol pollution), the extent of changes in verticaltemperature differences in the boundary layer (BL) in BIV, and northerlysurface winds from Lake Baikal during wintertime to evaluate the potentialcontribution of climate warming to changes in meteorological conditionsdirectly related to aerosol pollution in this area; this is accomplishedusing NCEP reanalysis data, surface observations, and long-term verticalballoon sounding observations since 1960. The weather conditions affectingBIV aerosol pollution are found to have worsened since the 1960s as a whole.This worsening is more significant after 2010, with PM2.5 reachingunprecedented high levels in many cities in China, particularly in BIV. Thedecadal worsening of meteorological conditions in BIV can partly beattributed to climate warming, which is defined by more warming in the higherlayers of the boundary layer (BL) than the lower layers. This worsening canalso be influenced by the accumulation of aerosol pollution, to a certainextent (particularly after 2010), because the increase in aerosol pollutionfrom the ground leads to surface cooling by aerosol–radiation interactions,which facilitates temperature inversions, increases moisture accumulations,and results in the extra deterioration of meteorological conditions. Ifanalyzed as a linear trend, weather conditions have worsened by∼ 4 % each year from 2010 to 2017. Given such a deterioration rate,the worsening of weather conditions may lead to a corresponding amplitudeincrease in PM2.5 in BIV during wintertime in the next 5 years (i.e.,2018 to 2022). More stringent emission reduction measures will need to beconducted by the government.

The interdecadal worsening of weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in the Beijing area in relation to climate warming