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. Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018) focused onthe preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF–CHIMEREperformance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment ofthe future (2030) black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for SoutheastAsia (SEA) countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing(DRF). The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base yearof 2007 (BY2007), assuming “no intervention” with the linear projection ofthe emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand andthe sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures tocut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand(road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning) whilefor other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5)emissions were assumed. WRF–CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol speciesunder BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base yearmeteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosoloptical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD forall scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030,the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided prematuredeaths associated with ambient PM 2.5 reduction along with BC DRFreduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per100 000 people in the SEAdomain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the prematuredeaths would be cut down (avoided) by 63 fromRED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was0.98 W m −2 , which would increase to 2.0 W m −2 under BAU2030 and1.4 W m −2 under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BCDRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated inRED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such as for agriculturalcrop production, and the cost–benefit analysis of the measures'implementation to provide relevant information for policy making.

atmospheric chemistry and physics

Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia