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Chemical and dynamical drivers of trends in tropical total-column ozone(TCO3) for the recent past andfuture periods are explored using the UM-UKCA (Unified Model HadGEM3-A(Hewitt et al., 2011) coupled with the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosolscheme) chemistry–climate model. A transient 1960–2100 simulation isanalysed which follows the representative concentration pathway 6.0 (RCP6.0)emissions scenario for the future. Tropical averaged(10° S–10° N) TCO3 values decrease from the 1970s,reach a minimum around 2000 and return to their 1980 values around 2040,consistent with the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depletingsubstances (ODSs), and their later controls under the Montreal Protocol.However, when the ozone column is subdivided into three partial columns(PCO3) that cover the upper stratosphere(PCO3US), lower stratosphere(PCO3LS) and troposphere(PCO3T), significant differences in the temporalbehaviour of the partial columns are seen. ModelledPCO3T values under the RCP6.0 emissions scenarioincrease from 1960 to 2000 before remaining approximately constant throughoutthe 21st century. PCO3LS values decrease rapidly from1960 to 2000 and remain constant from 2000 to 2050, before graduallydecreasing further from 2050 to 2100 and never returning to their 1980svalues. In contrast, PCO3US values decrease from 1960to 2000, before increasing rapidly throughout the 21st century and returningto 1980s values by  ∼  2020, and reach significantly higher values by2100. Using a series of idealised UM-UKCA time-slice simulations withconcentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) and halogenated ODSspecies set to either year 2000 or 2100 levels, we examine the main processesthat drive the PCO3 responses in the three regions and assess howthese processes change under different emission scenarios. Finally, wepresent a simple, linearised model to describe the future evolution oftropical stratospheric column ozone values based on terms representingtime-dependent abundances of GHG and halogenated ODS

Diagnosing the radiative and chemical contributions to future changes in tropical column ozone with the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model