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In situ surface observations show that downward surface solar radiation\ud(SWdn) over the central and southeastern United States (US) has increased\udby 0.58–1.0 Wm−2 a−1 over the 2000–2014 time frame, simultaneously\udwith reductions in US aerosol optical depth (AOD) of\ud3.3–5.0  ×  10−3 a−1. Establishing a link between these two trends,\udhowever, is challenging due to complex interactions between aerosols, clouds,\udand radiation. Here we investigate the clear-sky aerosol–radiation effects\udof decreasing US aerosols on SWdn and other surface variables by applying a\udone-dimensional radiative transfer to 2000–2014 measurements of AOD at two\udSurface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites in the central and\udsoutheastern United States. Observations characterized as <q>clear-sky</q> may\udin fact include the effects of thin cirrus clouds, and we consider these\udeffects by imposing satellite data from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy\udSystem (CERES) into the radiative transfer model. The model predicts that\ud2000–2014 trends in aerosols may have driven clear-sky SWdn trends of +1.35 Wm−2 a−1 at Goodwin Creek, MS, and +0.93 Wm−2 a−1 at\udBondville, IL. While these results are consistent in sign with observed\udtrends, a cross-validated multivariate regression analysis shows that AOD\udreproduces 20–26 % of the seasonal (June–September, JJAS) variability in\udclear-sky direct and diffuse SWdn at Bondville, IL, but none of the JJAS\udvariability at Goodwin Creek, MS. Using in situ soil and surface\udflux measurements from the Ameriflux network and Illinois Climate Network\ud(ICN) together with assimilated meteorology from the North American Land Data\udAssimilation System (NLDAS), we find that sunnier summers tend to coincide\udwith increased surface air temperature and soil moisture deficits in the\udcentral US. The 1990–2015 trends in the NLDAS SWdn over the central US\udare also of a similar magnitude to our modeled 2000–2014 clear-sky trends.\udTaken together, these results suggest that climate and regional hydrology in\udthe central US are sensitive to the recent reductions in aerosol\udconcentrations. Our work has implications for severely polluted regions\udoutside the US, where improvements in air quality due to reductions in the\udaerosol burden could inadvertently pose an enhanced climate risk

Aerosol trends as a potential driver of regional climate in the central United States: evidence from observations