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The importance for reliable forecasts of incoming solar radiation is\udgrowing rapidly, especially for those countries with an increasing\udshare in photovoltaic (PV) power production. The reliability of\udsolar radiation forecasts depends mainly on the representation of\udclouds and aerosol particles absorbing and scattering radiation.\udEspecially under extreme aerosol conditions, numerical weather\udprediction has a systematic bias in the solar radiation\udforecast. This is caused by the design of numerical weather\udprediction models, which typically account for the direct impact of\udaerosol particles on radiation using climatological mean values and\udthe impact on cloud formation assuming spatially and temporally\udhomogeneous aerosol concentrations.  These model deficiencies in\udturn can lead to significant economic losses under extreme aerosol\udconditions.  For Germany, Saharan dust outbreaks occurring 5 to 15\udtimes per year for several days each are prominent examples for\udconditions, under which numerical weather prediction struggles to\udforecast solar radiation adequately. We investigate the impact of\udmineral dust on the PV-power generation during a Saharan dust\udoutbreak over Germany on 4 April 2014 using ICON-ART, which is the\udcurrent German numerical weather prediction model extended by\udmodules accounting for trace substances and related feedback\udprocesses. We find an overall improvement of the PV-power forecast\udfor 65 % of the pyranometer stations in Germany.  Of the nine\udstations with very high differences between forecast and\udmeasurement, eight stations show an improvement. Furthermore, we\udquantify the direct radiative effects and indirect radiative effects\udof mineral dust.  For our study, direct effects account for 64 %,\udindirect effects for 20 % and synergistic interaction effects for\ud16 % of the differences between the forecast including mineral\uddust radiative effects and the forecast neglecting mineral dust

Impact of the 4 April 2014 Saharan dust outbreak on the photovoltaic power generation in Germany