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Winter warming and sea-ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decadesmay be related to changes of large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern,which may impact the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and itsdeposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and globalclimate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a statisticalalgorithm, based on the maximum likelihood estimate approach, to determinehow the changes of three large-scale weather patterns associated withincreasing temperatures in winter and sea-ice retreat in the Arctic impactthe transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that twoatmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trendof BC between 1980 and 2015 in the eastern Arctic while they increase BCdeposition in the western Arctic. The increasing BC trend is mainly due to apattern characterized by a high-pressure anomaly near Scandinavia favouringthe transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlanticdirectly into to the Arctic. Another pattern with a high-pressure anomalyover the Arctic and low-pressure anomaly over the North Atlantic Ocean has asmaller impact on BC deposition but determines an increasing BC atmosphericload over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in theupper troposphere. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulationdue to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantlyimpacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductionsapplied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance themost likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic

Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in winter on black carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic