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We examine the utility of tree ring 14C archives for detecting long-termchanges in fossil CO2 emissions from a point source. Trees assimilatecarbon from the atmosphere during photosynthesis, in the process faithfullyrecording the average atmospheric 14C content in each new annual treering. Using 14C as a proxy for fossil CO2, we examine interannualvariability over six years of fossil CO2 observations between 2004–2005and 2011–2012 from two trees growing near the Kapuni Gas TreatmentPlant in rural Taranaki, New Zealand. We quantify the amount ofvariability that can be attributed to transport and meteorology by simulatingconstant point-source fossil CO2 emissions over the observation periodwith the atmospheric transport model WindTrax. We compare model simulationresults to observations and calculate the amount of change in emissions thatwe can detect with new observations over annual or multi-year time periods,given both the measurement uncertainty of 1ppm and the modelled variation intransport. In particular, we ask, what is the minimum amount of change inemissions that we can detect using this method, given a reference period ofsix years? We find that changes of 42 % or more could be detected in anew sample from one year at the same observation location or 22 % in thecase of four years of new samples. This threshold is reduced and the methodbecomes more practical the more the size of the signal increases. For pointsources 10 times larger than the Kapuni plant (a more typical size for powerplants worldwide), it would be possible to detect sustained emissions changeson the order of 10 %, given suitable meteorology and observations

Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions with tree ring archives

Detecting long-term changes in point-source fossil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions with tree ring archives