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To examine the\udeffects of changes in climate, land cover and land use (LCLU), and\udanthropogenic emissions on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) between the\ud5-year periods 1981–1985 and 2007–2011 in East Asia, we perform a series of\udsimulations using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by\udassimilated meteorological data and a suite of land cover and land use data.\udOur results indicate that climate change alone could lead to a decrease in\udwintertime PM2.5 concentration by 4.0–12.0 µg m−3 in northern\udChina, but to an increase in summertime PM2.5 by 6.0–8.0 µg m−3 in those regions. These changes are attributable to the changing\udchemistry and transport of all PM2.5 components driven by long-term\udtrends in temperature, wind speed and mixing depth. The concentration of\udsecondary organic aerosol (SOA) is simulated to increase by 0.2–0.8 µg m−3 in both summer and winter in most regions of East Asia due to\udclimate change alone, mostly reflecting higher biogenic volatile organic\udcompound (VOC) emissions under warming. The impacts of LCLU change alone on\udPM2.5 (−2.1 to +1.3 µg m−3) are smaller than that of climate\udchange, but among the various components the sensitivity of SOA and thus\udorganic carbon to LCLU change (−0.4 to +1.2 µg m−3) is quite\udsignificant especially in summer, which is driven mostly by changes in\udbiogenic VOC emissions following cropland expansion and changing vegetation\uddensity. The combined impacts show that while the effect of climate change on\udPM2.5 air quality is more pronounced, LCLU change could offset part of\udthe climate effect in some regions but exacerbate it in others. As a result\udof both climate and LCLU changes combined, PM2.5 levels are estimated to\udchange by −12.0 to +12.0 µg m−3 across East Asia between the two\udperiods. Changes in anthropogenic emissions remain the largest contributor to\uddeteriorating PM2.5 air quality in East Asia during the study period,\udbut climate and LCLU changes could lead to a substantial modification of\udPM2.5 levels

atmospheric chemistry and physics

Impacts of historical climate and land cover changes on fine particulate matter (PM&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2.5&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;) air quality in East Asia between 1980 and 2010