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The response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and precipitationto Middle East dust aerosols on sub-seasonal timescales is studied usingobservations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled withonline chemistry (WRF-Chem). Satellite data show that the ISM rainfall incoastal southwest India, central and northern India, and Pakistan is closelyassociated with the Middle East dust aerosols. The physical mechanism behindthis dust–ISM rainfall connection is examined through ensemble simulationswith and without dust emissions. Each ensemble includes 16 members withvarious physical and chemical schemes to consider the model uncertainties inparameterizing short-wave radiation, the planetary boundary layer, andaerosol chemical mixing rules. Experiments show that dust aerosols increaserainfall by about 0.44 mm day<sup>−1</sup> (~10 % of the climatology)in coastal southwest India, central and northern India, and north Pakistan, apattern consistent with the observed relationship. The ensemble mean rainfallresponse over India shows a much stronger spatial correlation with theobserved rainfall response than any other ensemble members. The largestmodeling uncertainties are from the boundary layer schemes, followed byshort-wave radiation schemes. In WRF-Chem, the dust aerosol optical depth(AOD) over the Middle East shows the strongest correlation with the ISMrainfall response when dust AOD leads rainfall response by about 11 days.Further analyses show that increased ISM rainfall is related to enhancedsouthwesterly monsoon flow and moisture transport from the Arabian Sea to theIndian subcontinent, which are associated with the development of ananomalous low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, the southern ArabianPeninsula, and the Iranian Plateau due to dust-induced heating in thetroposphere. The dust-induced heating in the mid-upper troposphere is mainlylocated in the Iranian Plateau rather than the Tibetan Plateau. This studydemonstrates a thermodynamic mechanism that links remote desert dustemissions in the Middle East to ISM circulation and precipitation variabilityon sub-seasonal timescales, which may have implications for ISM rainfallforecasts

Consistent response of Indian summer monsoon to Middle East dust in observations and simulations