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Land-based emissions of air pollutants in Europe have steadily  decreased over the past two decades, and this decrease is expected  to continue. Within the same time span emissions from shipping have  increased in EU ports and in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea,  defined as SECAs (sulfur emission control areas), although recently  sulfur emissions, and subsequently particle emissions, have decreased.  The maximum allowed sulfur content in marine fuels in EU  ports is now 0.1%, as required by the European Union sulfur  directive.  In the SECAs the maximum fuel content of sulfur is  currently 1% (the global average is about 2.4%). This will  be reduced to 0.1% from 2015, following the new International Maritime Organization (IMO) rules.    In order to assess the effects of ship emissions in and around the  Baltic Sea and the North Sea, regional model calculations with the  EMEP air pollution model have been made on a 1/4°  longitude × 1/8° latitude resolution, using ship  emissions in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea that are based on  accurate ship positioning data. The effects on depositions and air  pollution and the resulting number of years of life lost (YOLLs) have  been calculated by comparing model calculations with and without  ship emissions in the two sea areas. In 2010 stricter regulations  for sulfur emissions were implemented in the two sea areas, reducing  the maximum sulfur content allowed in marine fuels from 1.5 to 1%.  In addition ships were required to use fuels with 0.1 % sulfur in  EU harbours. The calculations have been  made with emissions representative of 2009 and 2011, i.e.  before and  after the implementation of the stricter controls on sulfur emissions  from 2010. The calculations with present emissions show that per  person, an additional 0.1–0.2 years of life lost is  estimated in areas close to the major ship tracks with current  emission levels. Comparisons of model calculations with emissions  before and after the implementation of stricter emission control on  sulfur show a general decrease in calculated particle  concentration. At the same time, however, an increase in ship  activity has resulted in higher emissions of other components, and  subsequently air concentrations, in particular of NO<sub>x</sub>, especially  in and around several major ports.    Additional model calculations have been made with land-based and  ship emissions representative of year 2030. Following a decrease in  emissions from all sectors, air quality is expected to improve, and depositions to be  reduced. Particles from shipping are expected to decrease as  a result of emission controls in the SECAs. Further controls of  NO<sub>x</sub> emissions from shipping are not decided, and  calculations are presented with and without such controls

Model calculations of the effects of present and future emissions of air pollutants from shipping in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea