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This study focusses on the variability of temperature, ozone and circulationcharacteristics in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with regard to theinfluence of the 11-year solar cycle. It is based on attribution analysisusing multiple nonlinear techniques (support vector regression, neuralnetworks) besides the multiple linear regression approach. The analysis wasapplied to several current reanalysis data sets for the 1979–2013 period,including MERRA, ERA-Interim and JRA-55, with the aim to compare how thesetypes of data resolve especially the double-peaked solar response intemperature and ozone variables and the consequent changes induced by theseanomalies. Equatorial temperature signals in the tropical stratosphere werefound to be in qualitative agreement with previous attribution studies,although the agreement with observational results was incomplete, especiallyfor JRA-55. The analysis also pointed to the solar signal in the ozone datasets (i.e. MERRA and ERA-Interim) not being consistent with the observeddouble-peaked ozone anomaly extracted from satellite measurements. Theresults obtained by linear regression were confirmed by the nonlinearapproach through all data sets, suggesting that linear regression is arelevant tool to sufficiently resolve the solar signal in the middleatmosphere. The seasonal evolution of the solar response was also discussedin terms of dynamical causalities in the winter hemispheres. The hypotheticalmechanism of a weaker Brewer–Dobson circulation at solar maxima was reviewedtogether with a discussion of polar vortex behaviour

The 11-year solar cycle in current reanalyses: a (non)linear attribution study of the middle atmosphere