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The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) was applied to investigate howprojected climate changes will affect the atmospheric transport of 13persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to the Arctic and their environmentalfate within the Arctic. Three sets of simulations were performed, one withpresent day emissions and initial environmental concentrations from a 20-year spin-up simulation, one with present day emissions and with initialenvironmental concentrations set to zero and one without emissions but withinitial environmental concentrations from the 20-year spin-up simulation.Each set of simulations consisted of two 10-year time slices representingthe present (1990–2000) and future (2090–2100) climate conditions.DEHM was driven using meteorological input from the global circulationmodel, ECHAM/MPI-OM, simulating the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1B climate scenario. Under theapplied climate and emission scenarios, the total mass of all compounds waspredicted to be up to 55 % lower across the Northern Hemisphere at the endof the 2090s than in the 1990s. The mass of HCHs within the Arctic waspredicted to be up to 38 % higher, whereas the change in mass of the PCBswas predicted to range from 38 % lower to 17 % higher depending on thecongener and the applied initial environmental concentrations. The resultsof this study also indicate that contaminants with no or a short emissionhistory will be more rapidly transported to and build up in the arcticenvironment in a future warmer climate. The process that dominates theenvironmental behaviour of POPs in the Arctic under a future warmer climatescenario is the shift in mass of POPs from the surface media to theatmosphere induced by the higher mean temperature. This is to some degreecounteracted by higher degradation rates also following the higher meantemperature. The more dominant of these two processes depends on thephysical-chemical properties of the compounds. Previous model studies havepredicted that the effect of a changed climate on the transport of POPs tothe Arctic is moderate relative to the effect of proposed changes inemissions, which is confirmed in this study. However, the model studies donot agree on whether climate change acts to reduce or increase environmentalconcentrations of POPs in the Arctic, and further work is needed to resolvethis matter

Modelling the impact of climate change on the atmospheric transport and the fate of persistent organic pollutants in the Arctic