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We use a global coupled chemistry–climate–land model (CESM) to assess theintegrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annualsurface O3 and PM2.5 in the United States with a focus on nationalparks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. Weshow that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air qualityis predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over thewestern and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising backgroundozone counteracts domestic emission reductions. Under the RCP4.5 scenario,surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum8 h averages below the primary US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb)in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 μg m−3; ~50%), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of12 μg m−3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved(10–15 dv; >75 km in visibility range), although some western US parkswith Class I status (40–74 % of total sites in the US) are still above the2050 planned target level to reach the goal of natural visibility conditionsby 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity maydominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsettingthe large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keepingvisibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study indicates thatanthropogenic emission patterns will be important for air quality in 2050.However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantialincrease in surface O3 (2–3 ppb) with important consequences for O3air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustratesthe need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and firesin future air quality management and planning and emission policy making

How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at national parks