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A significant difference, now of some 16 years' duration, has been shown toexist between the observed global surface temperature trend and that expectedfrom the majority of climate simulations. For its own sake, and to enablebetter climate prediction for policy use, the reasons behind this mismatchneed to be better understood. While an increasing number of possible causeshave been proposed, the candidate causes have not yet converged. With this background, this paper reinvestigates the relationship betweenchange in the level of CO2 and two of the major climate variables,atmospheric temperature and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using time-series analysis in the form of dynamic regression modelling withautocorrelation correction, it is shown that first-difference CO2 leadstemperature and that there is a highly statistically significant correlationbetween first-difference CO2 and temperature. Further, a correlation isfound for second-difference CO2 with the Southern Oscillation Index, theatmospheric-pressure component of ENSO. This paper also shows that both thesecorrelations display Granger causality. It is shown that the first-difference CO2 and temperature model shows notrend mismatch in recent years. These results may contribute to the prediction of future trends for globaltemperature and ENSO. Interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 isstandardly attributed to variability in the carbon sink capacity of theterrestrial biosphere. The terrestrial biosphere carbon sink is created bythe difference between photosynthesis and respiration (net primaryproductivity): a major way of measuring global terrestrial photosynthesis isby means of satellite measurements of vegetation reflectance, such as theNormalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In a preliminary analysis,this study finds a close correlation between an increasing NDVI and theincreasing climate model/temperature mismatch (as quantified by thedifference between the trend in the level of CO2 and the trend intemperature)

atmospheric chemistry and physics

Granger causality from changes in level of atmospheric CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; to global surface temperature and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and a candidate mechanism in global photosynthesis