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Lightning is one of the major natural sources of NOx in the atmosphere.A suite of time slice experiments using a stratosphere-resolvingconfiguration of the Unified Model (UM), containing the United KingdomChemistry and Aerosols sub-model (UKCA), has been performed to investigatethe impact of climate change on emissions of NOx from lightning(LNOx) and to highlight its critical impacts on photochemical ozoneproduction and the oxidising capacity of the troposphere. Two RepresentativeConcentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are explored.LNOx is simulated to increase in a year-2100 climate by 33% (RCP4.5)and 78% (RCP8.5), primarily as a result of increases in the depth ofconvection. The total tropospheric chemical odd oxygen production(P(Ox)) increases linearly with increases in total LNOx andconsequently, tropospheric ozone burdens of 29 ± 4 Tg(O3) (RCP4.5)and 46 ± 4 Tg(O3) (RCP8.5) are calculated here. By prescribing auniform surface boundary concentration for methane in these simulations,methane-driven feedbacks are essentially neglected. A simple estimate of thecontribution of the feedback reduces the increase in ozone burden to 24 and33 Tg(O3), respectively. We thus show that, through changes inLNOx, the effects of climate change counteract the simulated mitigationof the ozone burden, which results from reductions in ozone precursoremissions as part of air quality controls projected in the RCP scenarios.Without the driver of increased LNOx, our simulations suggest that thenet effect of climate change would be to lower free tropospheric ozone. In addition, we identify large climate-change-induced enhancements in theconcentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH) in the tropical upper troposphere(UT), particularly over the Maritime Continent, primarily as a consequenceof greater LNOx. The OH enhancement in the tropics increases oxidationof both methane (with feedbacks onto chemistry and climate) and veryshort-lived substances (VSLS) (with implications for stratospheric ozonedepletion). We emphasise that it is important to improve our understandingof LNOx in order to gain confidence in model projections of compositionchange under future climate

atmospheric chemistry and physics

Lightning NO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;x&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;, a key chemistry–climate interaction: impacts of future climate change and consequences for tropospheric oxidising capacity