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In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from thetransportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The SpeciatedPollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links theemitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to projectemissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous modelsof global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail onthe technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomicdrivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and thevehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economicdevelopment. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated basedon other studies so that the final results encompass the entiretransportation sector. The emission projections are driven by fourcommonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fueluse (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128–171 EJacross the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101–138 Tgof carbon monoxide (CO), 44–54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx),14–18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and3.6–4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At theglobal level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projecteddecline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010–2030),because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fueluse. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of thefast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africaand increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-roadvehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THCemissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most toNOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America andEast Asia are the two largest contributors to global CO and THC emissions inthe year 2010; this dominance shifts to Africa and South Asia in the future.By the year 2050, for CO and THC emissions, non-road engines contribute thegreatest fraction in Asia and the former USSR, while on-road vehicles makethe largest contribution in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East; forNOx and PM emissions, shipping controls the trend in mostregions. These forecasts include a formal treatment of the factors that drivetechnology choices in the global vehicle sector and therefore represent arobust and plausible projection of what future emissions may be. Theseresults have important implications for emissions of gases and aerosols thatinfluence air quality, human health, and climate change

Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling