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Evaluation of a regional air quality forecasting system for the PacificNorthwest was carried out using a suite of surface and satelliteobservations. Wildfire events for the 2007 and 2008 fire seasons weresimulated using the Air Information Report for Public Access and CommunityTracking v.3 (AIRPACT-3) framework utilizing the Community Multi-scale AirQuality (CMAQ) model. Fire emissions were simulated using the BlueSkyframework with fire locations determined by the Satellite Mapping AutomatedReanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation (SMARTFIRE). Plume rise wassimulated using two different methods: the Fire Emission ProductionSimulator (FEPS) and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)model. Predicted plume top heights were compared to the Cloud-Aerosol LIDARwith Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) instrument aboard the Cloud AerosolLIDAR and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite.Carbon monoxide predictions were compared to the Atmospheric InfraRedSounder (AIRS) instrument aboard the Aqua satellite. Horizontaldistributions of column aerosol optical depth (AOD) were compared toretrievals by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)instrument aboard the Aqua satellite. Model tropospheric nitrogen dioxidedistributions were compared to retrievals from the Ozone MonitoringInstrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite. Surface ozone and PM2.5predictions were compared to surface observations. The AIRPACT-3 modelcaptured the location and transport direction of fire events well, butsometimes missed the timing of fire events and overall underestimated thePM2.5 impact of wildfire events at surface monitor locations. During the2007 (2008) fire period, the fractional biases (FBs) of AIRPACT-3 for variouspollutant observations included: average 24 h PM2.5 FB = −33% (−27%);maximum daily average 8 h ozone FB = −8% (+1%); AOD FB = −61%(−53%); total column CO FB = −10% (−5%); and tropospheric columnNO2 FB = −39% (−28%). The bias in total column CO is within therange of expected error. Fractional biases of AIRPACT-3 plume tops werefound to be −46% when compared in terms of above mean sea level,but only −28% when compared in terms of above ground level, partlydue to the under-estimation of AIRPACT-3 ground height in complex terrainthat results from the 12 km grid-cell smoothing. We conclude that aerosolpredictions were too low for locations greater than ~100–300 km downwind from wildfire sources and that model predictions are likelyunder-predicting secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production, due to acombination of very low volatile organic compound (VOC) emission factors used in the United StatesForest Service Consume model, an incomplete speciation of VOC to SOAprecursors in SMOKE, and under-prediction by the SOA parameterization withinCMAQ

Air quality simulations of wildfires in the Pacific Northwest evaluated with surface and satellite observations during the summers of 2007 and 2008