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At Uccle, Belgium, a long time series (1991–2013) of simultaneous measurements oferythemal ultraviolet (UV) dose (Sery), global solar radiation(Sg), total ozone column (Q_{O3}$) and aerosol opticaldepth (τaer) (at 320.1 nm) is available, which allows for anextensive study of the changes in the variables over time. Linear trends weredetermined for the different monthly anomalies time series. Sery,Sg and QO3 all increase by respectively 7, 4 and3% per decade. τaer shows an insignificant negative trendof −8% per decade. These trends agree with results found in the literaturefor sites with comparable latitudes. A change-point analysis, whichdetermines whether there is a significant change in the mean of the timeseries, is applied to the monthly anomalies time series of the variables.Only for Sery and QO3, was a significant change pointpresent in the time series around February 1998 and March 1998,respectively. The change point in QO3 corresponds with resultsfound in the literature, where the change in ozone levels around 1997 isattributed to the recovery of ozone. A multiple linear regression (MLR)analysis is applied to the data in order to study the influence of Sg, QO3 and τaer on Sery. Togetherthese parameters are able to explain 94% of the variation inSery. Most of the variation (56%) in Sery isexplained by Sg. The regression model performs well, with a slighttendency to underestimate the measured Sery values and with amean absolute bias error (MABE) of 18%. However, in winter, negativeSery are modeled. Applying the MLR to the individual seasonssolves this issue. The seasonal models have an adjusted R2 value higherthan 0.8 and the correlation between modeled and measured Seryvalues is higher than 0.9 for each season. The summer model gives the bestperformance, with an absolute mean error of only 6%. However, theseasonal regression models do not always represent reality, where an increasein Sery is accompanied with an increase in QO3 and adecrease in τaer. In all seasonal models, Sg is thefactor that contributes the most to the variation in Sery, sothere is no doubt about the necessity to include this factor in theregression models. The individual contribution of τaer toSery is very low, and for this reason it seems unnecessary toinclude τaer in the MLR analysis. Including QO3,however, is justified to increase the adjusted R2 and to decrease theMABE of the model

Relations between erythemal UV dose, global solar radiation, total ozone column and aerosol optical depth at Uccle, Belgium