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The ammonia cycle and nitrate particle formation are introduced into theLMDz-INCA (Laboratoire de MétéorologieDynamique, version 4 – INteraction with Chemistry andAerosols, version 3) global model. An important aspect of this new model is that bothfine nitrate particle formation in the accumulation mode and coarse nitrateforming on existing dust and sea-salt particles are considered. The modelsimulates distributions of nitrates and related species in agreement withprevious studies and observations. The calculated present-day total nitratedirect radiative forcing since the pre-industrial is −0.056 W m−2.This forcing corresponds to 18% of the sulfate forcing. Fine particleslargely dominate the nitrate forcing, representing close to 90% of thisvalue. The model has been used to investigate the future changes in nitratesand direct radiative forcing of climate based on snapshot simulations for thefour representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and for the 2030,2050, and 2100 time horizons. Due to a decrease in fossil fuel emissions inthe future, the concentration of most of the species involved in thenitrate–ammonium–sulfate system drop by 2100 except for ammonia, whichoriginates from agricultural practices and for which emissions significantlyincrease in the future. Despite the decrease of nitrate surface levels inEurope and North America, the global burden of accumulation mode nitratesincreases by up to a factor of 2.6 in 2100. This increase in ammonium nitratein the future arises despite decreasing NOx emissions due toincreased availability of ammonia to form ammonium nitrate. The total aerosoldirect forcing decreases from its present-day value of −0.234 W m−2to a range of −0.070 to −0.130 W m−2 in 2100 based on theconsidered scenario. The direct forcing decreases for all aerosols except fornitrates, for which the direct negative forcing increases to a range of−0.060 to −0.115 W m−2 in 2100. Including nitrates in theradiative forcing calculations increases the total direct forcing of aerosolsby a factor of 1.3 in 2000, by a factor of 1.7–2.6 in 2030, by 1.9–4.8 in2050, and by 6.4–8.6 in 2100. These results show that the agricultural emissionsof ammonia will play a key role in the future mitigation of climate change,with nitrates becoming the dominant contributor to the anthropogenic aerosoloptical depth during the second half of the 21st century and significantlyincreasing the calculated aerosol direct forcing. This significant increasein the influence that nitrate exerts on climate in the future will at thesame time affect regional air quality and nitrogen deposition to theecosystem

A global model simulation of present and future nitrate aerosols and their direct radiative forcing of climate