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A comprehensive general circulation model including ice supersaturation isused to estimate the climate impact of aviation induced contrails. The modeluses a realistic aviation emissions inventory for 2006 to initiate contrails,and allows them to evolve consistently with the model hydrologic cycle. The radiative forcing from linear contrails is very sensitive to the diurnalcycle. For linear contrails, including the diurnal cycle of air trafficreduces the estimated radiative forcing by 29%, and for contrail cirrusestimates, the radiative forcing is reduced by 25%. Estimated globalradiative forcing from linear contrails is 0.0031 ± 0.0005 Wm−2. Thelinear contrail radiative forcing is found to exhibit a strong diurnal cycle.The contrail cirrus radiative forcing is less sensitive to the diurnal cycleof flights. The estimated global radiative forcing from contrail cirrus is0.013 ± 0.01 Wm−2. Over regions with the highest air traffic, theregional effect can be as large as 1 Wm−2

Simulated radiative forcing from contrails and contrail cirrus