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Global distributions and associated climate effects of atmospheric aerosolswere simulated using a global aerosol climate model, SPRINTARS, from 1850 tothe present day and projected forward to 2100. Aerosol emission inventoriesused by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) wereapplied to this study. Scenarios based on the Representative ConcentrationPathways (RCPs) were used for the future projection. Aerosol loading in theatmosphere has already peaked and is now reducing in Europe and NorthAmerica. However, in Asia where rapid economic growth is ongoing, aerosolloading is estimated to reach a maximum in the first half of this century.Atmospheric aerosols originating from the burning of biomass have maintainedhigh loadings throughout the 21st century in Africa, according to the RCPs.Evolution of the adjusted forcing by direct and indirect aerosol effects overtime generally correspond to the aerosol loading. The probable futurepathways of global mean forcing differ based on the aerosol direct effect fordifferent RCPs. Because aerosol forcing will be close to the preindustriallevel by the end of the 21st century for all RCPs despite the continuousincreases in greenhouse gases, global warming will be accelerated withreduced aerosol negative forcing

atmospheric chemistry and physics

Distributions and climate effects of atmospheric aerosols from the preindustrial era to 2100 along Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) simulated using the global aerosol model SPRINTARS