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In order to develop a launch vehicle successfully, it is important to estimate development costs accurately but it is also important to plan the annual budget. In this paper, the statistical method was utilized for cost spreading. For cost spread modeling, the suitability of the model by analyzing several statistical models was evaluated and consequently, the beta-distribution model has been selected. In this study, the validity of the annual estimation cost model was verified through the comparison of the actual development cost distribution and the estimating cost distribution of Space Shuttle Main Engine. In addition, this paper estimated the annual budget required for the development of the KSLV-II using currently allocated cost for successful development. It is anticipated that the present cost spread model can be applied to not only launch vehicle development but also other large complex system development.

Cost Model for Annual Cost Spread Estimation of Space Launch Vehicle Development