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DOI 10.1515/cjpp-2013-0046 Calif. J. Politics Policy 2014; 6(3): 339–359 Elizabeth Bergman*, Gary Segura and Matt Barreto Immigration Politics and Electoral Consequences: Anticipating the Dynamics of Latino Vote in the 2014 Election Abstract: The debate over comprehensive immigration reform in the summer and fall of 2013 had the potential to significantly affect future elections by, once again, reshaping the image of the Republican Party (GOP) in the eyes of Latino voters. In this effort, we explore the demographic and political origins of 2013s legisla- tive effort and the history of immigration politics in recent decades. We examine recent polling data that suggest that movement in the GOP’s images in response to this process is possible – in both directions. Finally, we identify specific con- gressional districts where razor-thin margins in the past could present opportu- nities for both parties, depending on whether and how the immigration issue is resolved. In so doing, we identify four distinct ways in which a less hostile GOP might improve its electoral outcomes among Latino registered voters. Keywords: Latino; immigration; voters; congressional elections *Corresponding author: Elizabeth Bergman, Political Science, California State Universty East Bay, 25800 Carlos Bee Blvd MI 4094, Hayward, CA 94542, USA, Tel: +510-885-3221, Fax: +510-885-2477, e-mail: elizabeth.bergman@csueastbay.edu Gary Segura: Political Science, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA Matt Barreto: Political Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA When Bill Clinton was elected President of the US in 1993, only 3.7% of the Ameri- can electorate was Latino. In 2012, the number was around 10%. Nationally, Latinos comprise 17% of the US population and most – over 85% according to census bureau numbers – are either foreign born themselves, or born to immi- grant parents or grandparents. That is, an overwhelming majority of Latinos and Latino citizens are within two generations of the immigration experience. To attempt to separate “Latino” politics from “immigration” politics is a fool’s errand. Though Latinos care about all issues other Americans care about, as illus- trated in Table 1, it is clearly the case that immigration has, in recent years, sat at or near the top of the Latino agenda. Though the economic collapse of 2008 and its subsequent effects clearly drew attention to those economic concerns, as we approach the 2014 midterm elections, it is immigration that is the focus of Latino registered voters.