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We examine the construction methodology of a source model for strong ground-motion prediction of scenario earthquakes with a long active-fault zone including a multi-segment rupture case. For the multi-segment rupture event, different seismic moments are given by applying two different source-model construction methodologies: (1) a methodology based on seismological scaling relationships and (2) a methodology in an active-fault study based on the cascade model (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1995). The difference between these methodologies is whether or not a slip of each segment depends on total rupture length. We investigate which construction methodology is more appropriate for the construction of the source model. We use the two methodologies to construct characterized source models for strong ground-motion simulations of the 1891 Nobi earthquake, which was a multi-segment rupture event occurring in the Nobi active-fault system. We evaluate the constructed source models by comparing the seismic intensities obtained from simulated waveforms with those estimated from the questionnaire-based intensities determined by Muramatu and Kominami (1992). The characterized source model constrained by seismological scaling relationships can give a more adequate distribution of the estimated seismic intensities. We also suggest that the Gifu-Ichinomiya fault might be considered as a source fault to explain the damage distribution on the Nobi Plain.

Examination of source-model construction methodology for strong ground-motion simulation of multi-segment rupture during 1891 Nobi earthquake