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We modify the new method for the statistical estimation of the taildistribution of earthquake seismic moments introduced by Pisarenko et al.[2009] and apply it to the earthquake catalog of Japan (1923-2007). The methodis based on the two main limit theorems of the theory of extreme values and onthe derived duality between the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) andGeneralized Extreme Value distribution (GEV). We obtain the distribution ofmaximum earthquake magnitudes in future time intervals of arbitrary durationtau. This distribution can be characterized by its quantile Qq(tau) at anydesirable statistical level q. The quantile Qq(tau) provides a much more stableand robust characteristic than the traditional absolute maximum magnitude Mmax(Mmax can be obtained as the limit of Qq(tau) as q tends to 1, and tau tends toinfinity). The best estimates of the parameters governing the distribution ofQq(tay) for Japan (1923-2007) are the following: Form parameter for GEV =-0.1901 +- 0.0717; position parameter GEV(tau=200)= 6.3387 +- 0.0380; spreadparameter for GEV(tau=200)= 0.5995 +- 0.0223; Q_0.90,GEV(tau=10)= 8.34 +- 0.32.We also estimate Qq(tau) for a set of q-values and future time periods in therange for tau between 1 and 50 years from 2007. For comparison, the absolutemaximum estimate Mmax from GEV, which is equal to 9.57 +- 0.86, has a scattermore than twice that of the 90 percent quantile Q_{0.90,GEV}(tau=10) of themaximum magnitude over the next 10 years counted from 2007.

Distribution of Maximum Earthquake Magnitudes in Future Time Intervals, Application to the Seismicity of Japan (1923-2007)