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A sequence of 150 explosive eruptions recorded during the past century at the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) is subjected to statistical time series analysis. The exponential, Weibull, and log-logistic distribution functions are fit to the eruption record, separately for literature-assigned volcanic exploslvlty indices (VEI) &#8805; 2 and VEI &#8805; 3. Since statistical tests confirm the adequacy of all the fits to describe the data, all models are used to estimate the likelihood of future eruptions. Only small differences are observed between the different distribution functions with regard to the eruption forecast, whereby the log-logistic distribution predicts the lowest probabilities. There is a 50% probability for VEI &#8805; 2 eruptions to occur in the SVZ within less than a year, and 90% probability to occur within the next 2-3 years. For the larger VEI &#8805; 3 eruptions, the 50% probability is reached in 3-4 years, while the 90% level is reached in 9-11 years. Se presenta un análisis estadístico de la serie temporal de 150 erupciones volcánicas explosivas registradas durante el siglo pasado en la Zona Volcánica del Sur de Chile. Se modeló el conjunto de erupciones mediante la distribución exponencial, de Weibull y log-logística, restringiendo el análisis a erupciones de índice de explosividad volcánica (IEV) mayores a 2 y 3, respectivamente. Como los modelos pasan las pruebas estadísticas, los tres modelos se aplican para estimar la probabilidad de erupciones futuras. Se observan solo diferencias menores entre las predicciones mediante los distintos modelos, con la distribución log-logística dando las probabilidades más bajas. Para erupciones de IEV &#8805; 2, la probabilidad de producirse una erupción dentro de un año es más del 50%, creciendo al 90% en 2-3 años. Para erupciones más grandes, de IEV &#8805; 3, el 50% de probabilidad se alcanza dentro de 3-4 años, y el 90% dentro de 9-11 años

andean geology

On the likelihood of future eruptions in the Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone: interpreting the past century’s eruption record based on statistical analyses