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This research examined the effect of prison population densities (PPD) on inmate-inmate prison violence rates (PVR) in Japan using one-year-interval time-series data (1972-2006). Cointegration regressions revealed a long-run equilibrium relationship between PPD and PVR. PPD had a significant and increasing effect on PVR in the long-term. Error correction models showed that in the short-term, the effect of PPD was significant and positive on PVR, even after controlling for the effects of the proportions of males, age younger than 30 years, less than one-year incarceration, and prisoner/staff ratio. The results were discussed in regard to (a) differences between Japanese prisons and prisons in the United States, and (b) methodological problems found in previous research.

The effect of prison crowding on prisoners' violence in Japan: Testing with cointegration regressions and error correction models