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This study examines the reaction of local currency oil prices to the COVID-19 pandemic using Turkish daily data (July 25, 2019 to October 30, 2020). A multivariate adaptive regression splines model is employed that considers foreign exchange (USD-TRY), credit default swap spread, global uncertainty, and global volatility as control variables. The findings show that: (i) the volatility index influences oil prices most regardless of the sample size; and (ii) the COVID-19 pandemic affects the importance of effective variables on the local currency oil prices in Turkey.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Oil Prices: Evidence From Turkey