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Both in scientific literature and in the mass media, some earthquakes are defined as «surprise earthquakes».&#13; Based on his own judgment, probably any geologist, seismologist or engineer may have his own list of past «surprise&#13; earthquakes». This paper tries to quantify the underlying individual perception that may lead a scientist to&#13; apply such a definition to a seismic event. The meaning is different, depending on the disciplinary approach. For&#13; geologists, the Italian database of seismogenic sources is still too incomplete to allow for a quantitative estimate&#13; of the subjective degree of belief. For seismologists, quantification is possible defining the distance between an&#13; earthquake and its closest previous neighbor. Finally, for engineers, the San Giuliano quake could not be considered&#13; a surprise, since probabilistic site hazard estimates reveal that the change before and after the earthquake&#13; is just 4%

What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the 2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event