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We constructed a model of earthquakes (M ? 5.0) in Kanto, central Japan, based on three parameters: the a and&#13; b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and the ?- parameter of changes in mean event size. In our method,&#13; two empirical probability densities for each parameter, those associated with target events (conditional density&#13; distributions) and those not associated with them (background density distributions), are defined and assumed to&#13; have a normal distribution. Therefore, three parameters are transformed by appropriate relations so that new parameters&#13; are normally distributed. The retrospective analysis in the learning period and the prospective test of&#13; testing period demonstrated that the proposed model performs better by about 0.1 units in terms of the information&#13; gain per event than the value summed up with those of the three parameters. The results are confirmed by&#13; a simulation with randomly selected model parameters

Performance of a seismicity model based on three parameters for earthquakes (M ? 5.0) in Kanto, central Japan